Heating Up (2015 Review)
Another year, another Saxons cut hip hey? This past year was packed with a lot of national drama with political repercussions. BAMSI literally went up in flames, BahaMar continues to go nowhere fast and several politicians either resigned or changed parties.
A saying I heard a while back says that there are three kinds of people in the world: People who make things happen, people who watch things happen, and people who wonder what happened. I think if we try hard enough, we can categorize The Bahamas' three major political parties according to that theory. In 2015, Hubert Minnis appeared to me to be the person who made things happen. It is easy to perceive him as having successfully recruited Wells and Rollins, although that move likely had more to do with the ambition of the two gentlemen rather than the FNM's appeal (or lack thereof). Regardless, with the help of carefully constructed informal news outlets like BahamaNews MaBey and the New and Better Bahamas, the FNM was able to boost positive public perception of Minnis. In short, he didn't lose, so he won. I should also mention that Loretta Butler-Turner had a great year. The country will not forget her well organized response to Hurricane Joaquin that devastated her constituency, and all of the optics associated with it.
It's a little bit harder to tell what kind of people the PLP and DNA were in 2015, but I think it was the DNA and Branville McCartney that spent most of their year watching things happen. I enjoyed watching NB12's 'year in review' and reliving the most memorable events of 2015. In that program, the DNA was mentioned twice. The first time, NB12 said that 2015 was the year that several candidates left the DNA, as they replayed the clip of McCartney reflecting on the departure of former Mount Moriah candidate Wayne Munroe. The second time, NB12 narrated over a clip of a DNA press conference, paraphrasing McCartney's continued rejection of claims that he will eventually rejoin the FNM. The key thing to note here is that both of these mentions showed the DNA on the defensive. That's not the media's fault, because even I can admit that every time there was a major political development, the DNA did little to insert themselves into the conversation, and they lost relevance as a result. Regardless of whether they like it or not, spinners will say that the DNA failed to attract Moss, Wells and Rollins once election season heats up, and that's not going to help them in the long run. If I could describe 2015 for the DNA, I would use the word ‘autopilot’. That is a shame too, because 2014 was quite productive for the green team. As for McCartney himself, his public image probably did not suffer any significant damage, but his party definitely has some catching up to do.
I think Perry Christie was the person left wondering what happened simply because so much went wrong for them last year. The vast majority of Perry Christie’s bridge to the future candidates are disillusioned. 3 left the PLP. Gomez has shown signs of disaffection. Even Leslie Miller ran hot a couple of times. Christie is now in a very awkward position when it comes to naming candidates for 2017 - if the PLP again runs a younger slate of candidates under his leadership, there is no guarantee that the new recruits will be any more subordinate than the 2012 slate. If the PLP defers to their older, more seasoned bench, the public will eat Christie alive and deem him out of touch. I am sure this problem alone keeps him up at night, but I find it really hard to feel sorry for the PLP's conundrum. Maybe it's just me. This next election is now Christie's to lose.
To wrap this up, I'm going to give someone (or some party) an award for "perceptual winner of 2015." Based on what I've written, there's really only one choice: Hubert Minnis. The FNM might still be plagued by rumors of internal turbulence, but Minnis did what he needed to do to look like a decent alternative to Christie. Basically, he had an average year when the other parties were being handed big fat 'Ls'. However, I think we all know that he can't tread water in his party forever. There are red sharks wading in waters nearby. Rollins and Wells may have distracted them for a while, but it will take more than that to scare them off for good. Time will tell if Minnis can get them off his tail for good.
The PLP continues to be perceived as inept and ineffective. As the government, they are in the best position to turn this perception around. Meanwhile, the DNA has not had a consistent platform to input their ideas onto the national stage. Instead of being viewed as a way out of the quagmire we are now in, disillusioned voters are now lumping the DNA in as part of the problem. Part of that was inevitable, but the DNA has not helped their case by failing to address negative rumors that threaten to smother them. If 2016 is anything like 2015, expect to see a lot of crucial swing voters to spend Election Day in bed.
I really am excited for what 2016 will bring. We will start to see candidates be announced by all of the major parties. We may see conventions from all 3, and gain more clarity about the structure of the UDP. The margin for error will grow smaller. Tensions will run higher. And of course, rhetoric will be louder than ever. Buckle up Bahamians, we're in for a long ride.
